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Mozambique TIER 1 HIGH 4/5
Threat Level Trend
4/5
HIGH
May 18, 2026
Executive Summary
Mozambique faces a dual security crisis: the Cabo Delgado insurgency by ASWJ/IS-Mozambique in the north, and post-election political violence following the disputed October 2024 elections. The country's LNG potential remains constrained by insecurity. EU engagement through EUTM Mozambique and development cooperation is substantial.
Economy Overview
GDP (nominal)
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GDP Growth
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Inflation (CPI)
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Interest Rate
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Trade Balance
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EUR / --- -- | Index --
EU Cooperation & Investment
★ EU
EUR 1,026M Total EU Investment
15 Projects & Programmes
Climate & Environment 1 EUR 33M ▶
Digital & ICT 1 EUR 20M ▶
Fisheries & Blue Economy 2 EUR 86M ▶
Governance & Rule of Law 1 EUR 605M ▶
Infrastructure & Transport 1 EUR 56M ▶
Maritime Security 4 EUR 95M ▶
Peace & Security 2 EUR 98M ▶
Trade & Investment 3 EUR 33M ▶
Trade & Cooperation Agreements
Agreement Type Budget Organisation Period Status
SADC Industrialisation & Productive Sectors (SIPS) Trade & Cooperation EUR 18M SADC 2019–2024 COMPLETED
SADC Trade Facilitation Programme Trade & Cooperation EUR 15M SADC 2019–2024 COMPLETED Source ↗
SADC EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) Economic Partnership Agreement — SADC 2016 ACTIVE Source ↗
Latest Intelligence Report
May 18, 2026 — 19:46 UTC · Period: May 14 — May 21, 2026
Full report →

Executive Summary

Mozambique's security environment during May 14-21, 2026 remains at HIGH threat level (4/5). The convergence of Islamist insurgency and political crisis creates a complex security landscape.

Key Developments

Cabo Delgado Insurgency

  • ASWJ/IS-Mozambique attacks continued in Mocímboa da Praia and Macomia districts
  • SAMIM (SADC Mission in Mozambique) force of 3,200 troops maintained operations
  • Rwandan military contingent (2,500 troops) continued bilateral deployment in northern Cabo Delgado
  • TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG ($20B) project remained in force majeure since 2021

Post-Election Crisis

  • Opposition protests against October 2024 election results subsided but tensions persisted
  • Over 300 deaths reported during post-election violence period
  • EU election observation mission documented significant irregularities
  • Political dialogue between FRELIMO government and RENAMO opposition produced framework agreement

Humanitarian Situation

  • 1.3M internally displaced in Cabo Delgado; humanitarian access constrained by insecurity
  • 2.5M people in food insecurity across northern and central provinces
  • Cholera outbreaks in displacement camps; 15,000 cases in Q1 2026
  • EU allocated €120M humanitarian response for Mozambique crisis

Economic Impact

  • GDP growth at 4.5% but northern provinces severely affected by conflict
  • LNG project delays cost estimated $50B in foregone investment
  • Metical at 65 MZN/USD; inflation at 8.5%
  • Mining sector (coal, graphite, heavy sands) maintained production in central provinces

EU-Mozambique Relations

  • EUTM Mozambique trained 2,400 FADM personnel in counter-insurgency operations
  • EU comprehensive strategy addressed security, governance, and development dimensions
  • Global Gateway investment in Nacala Corridor infrastructure
  • Fisheries partnership agreement generated €8.5M annually

Outlook

Mozambique's dual crisis (insurgency + political) requires integrated security and governance solutions. LNG investment resumption depends on sustained security improvements in Cabo Delgado. EU engagement provides critical training and development support but long-term stability requires domestic political reconciliation.

Sources

  • OCHA Mozambique Situation Reports
  • EUTM Mozambique Updates
  • EU External Action - Mozambique
  • Club of Mozambique News