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Sudan TIER 1 CRITICAL 5/5
Threat Level Trend
5/5
CRITICAL
May 21, 2026
Executive Summary
Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created the world's largest displacement crisis with over 12 million displaced. Widespread atrocities documented by the UN in Darfur and Khartoum. The humanitarian catastrophe is of unprecedented scale with famine conditions in multiple states. International mediation has failed to produce a ceasefire.
Economy Overview
GDP (nominal)
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EU Cooperation & Investment
★ EU
EUR 1,115M Total EU Investment
6 Projects & Programmes
Climate & Environment 1 EUR 40M ▶
Governance & Rule of Law 1 EUR 8M ▶
Humanitarian 1 EUR 896M ▶
Trade & Investment 3 EUR 171M ▶
Trade & Cooperation Agreements
Agreement Type Budget Organisation Period Status
Horn of Africa Initiative — Trade & Resilience Trade & Cooperation EUR 83M COMESA 2023–2027 ACTIVE Source ↗
COMESA Trade Facilitation Programme Trade & Cooperation EUR 48M COMESA 2020–2027 ACTIVE Source ↗
Africa Trade Competitiveness & Market Access (ATCMA-COMESA) Trade & Cooperation EUR 40M COMESA 2023–2028 ACTIVE Source ↗
Latest Intelligence Report
May 21, 2026 — 19:51 UTC · Period: May 14 — May 21, 2026
Full report →

Executive Summary

Sudan's security environment during May 14-21, 2026 remains at CRITICAL threat level (5/5). The civil war that erupted in April 2023 has devastated the country, with no ceasefire in sight and atrocities escalating.

Key Developments

Military Situation

  • SAF recaptured portions of Omdurman in urban warfare against RSF positions
  • RSF maintained control of most of Darfur, Kordofan, and Gezira states
  • Foreign arms flows continued: UAE allegedly supplying RSF via Chad; Egypt and Iran supporting SAF
  • Civilian targeting by both sides constituted potential war crimes and crimes against humanity per UN reports

Humanitarian Catastrophe

  • 12.8M internally displaced persons — world's largest displacement crisis
  • 3.1M refugees fled to Chad, Egypt, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Central African Republic
  • Famine declared in North Darfur (Zamzam camp) with 25.6M people facing acute food insecurity
  • Healthcare system collapsed with 70% of hospitals non-functional; disease outbreaks including cholera and measles

Darfur Atrocities

  • RSF and allied Arab militias conducted ethnically targeted attacks in El Geneina, Nyala, and El Fasher
  • UN Independent Fact-Finding Mission documented patterns constituting ethnic cleansing
  • El Fasher siege continued with 1.8M civilians trapped amid intense fighting
  • Sexual violence used systematically as weapon of war by RSF per UN documentation

International Response

  • Jeddah mediation process (US-Saudi brokered) produced no breakthrough
  • AU Peace and Security Council established special envoy but access denied by both parties
  • EU imposed sanctions on RSF and SAF commanders linked to atrocities
  • ICC Prosecutor accelerated investigations into Darfur atrocities

Regional Impact

  • Chad hosted 1.2M Sudanese refugees straining already fragile resources
  • Egypt managed massive refugee influx while supporting SAF diplomatically
  • South Sudan border areas affected by weapons flows and displacement
  • Eritrean involvement alleged in supporting SAF military operations

Outlook

Sudan faces potential state fragmentation if fighting continues. No credible peace process exists. The humanitarian catastrophe will worsen with approaching lean season. International community faces growing pressure for intervention mechanisms but political will remains insufficient.

Sources

  • UN OCHA Sudan Situation Reports
  • UN Human Rights Council Sudan Commission
  • ACLED Sudan Conflict Data
  • Sudan Tribune and Radio Dabanga