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Zambia TIER 2 MODERATE 2/5
Threat Level Trend
2/5
MODERATE
May 18, 2026
Executive Summary
Zambia under President Hichilema pursues economic reform and debt restructuring following the 2020 default. The country holds vast copper and cobalt reserves critical for the global energy transition. EU partnership supports economic governance and sustainable mining. Democratic governance strengthened under the current administration with improved transparency.
Economy Overview
GDP (nominal)
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GDP Growth
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Inflation (CPI)
--
Interest Rate
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Trade Balance
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EUR / --- -- | Index --
EU Cooperation & Investment
★ EU
EUR 2,791M Total EU Investment
13 Projects & Programmes
Climate & Environment 2 EUR 73M ▶
Digital & ICT 1 EUR 20M ▶
Energy & Green Transition 1 EUR 500M ▶
Governance & Rule of Law 1 EUR 8M ▶
Infrastructure & Transport 2 EUR 2,056M ▶
Critical Raw Materials 1 ▶
Peace & Security 1 EUR 13M ▶
Trade & Investment 4 EUR 121M ▶
Trade & Cooperation Agreements
Agreement Type Budget Organisation Period Status
COMESA Trade Facilitation Programme Trade & Cooperation EUR 48M COMESA 2020–2027 ACTIVE Source ↗
Africa Trade Competitiveness & Market Access (ATCMA-COMESA) Trade & Cooperation EUR 40M COMESA 2023–2028 ACTIVE Source ↗
SADC Industrialisation & Productive Sectors (SIPS) Trade & Cooperation EUR 18M SADC 2019–2024 COMPLETED
SADC Trade Facilitation Programme Trade & Cooperation EUR 15M SADC 2019–2024 COMPLETED Source ↗
Latest Intelligence Report
May 18, 2026 — 19:56 UTC · Period: May 14 — May 21, 2026
Full report →

Executive Summary

Zambia's security environment during May 14-21, 2026 remains at MODERATE threat level (2/5). Economic recovery from debt crisis and mining sector expansion define the current trajectory.

Key Developments

Political Situation

  • President Hichilema's UPND government maintained reform momentum ahead of 2026 by-elections
  • Anti-corruption investigations targeted former PF government officials
  • Constitutional reform discussions ongoing; bill of rights amendments proposed
  • Press freedom improved; Zambia's democratic governance ratings upgraded

Economic Recovery

  • GDP growth at 4.5% driven by copper mining expansion and agricultural recovery
  • Debt restructuring agreement (G20 Common Framework) reached with bilateral creditors
  • IMF $1.3B ECF program on track; fiscal consolidation targets met
  • Copper production reached 900,000 tonnes; Zambia positioned as EU critical minerals partner

Mining & Energy Transition

  • Cobalt production expansion for EV battery supply chain (EU Critical Raw Materials Act)
  • Kamoa-Kakula mine (Ivanhoe) commenced copper concentrate exports
  • Lobito Corridor infrastructure investment improved mineral export logistics
  • Renewable energy: 600MW solar capacity addition under World Bank financing

Security

  • Drought-induced food insecurity affected 6M people; El Niño impacts severe
  • DRC border security monitoring for eastern Congo conflict spillover
  • Cross-border smuggling of minerals and fuel along DRC and Tanzania borders
  • Wildlife conservation operations in national parks

Outlook

Zambia's economic recovery trajectory is positive conditional on continued reform implementation and favorable commodity prices. Critical minerals positioning makes Zambia an increasingly strategic EU partner. Drought and climate variability pose significant food security risks.

Sources

  • Bank of Zambia
  • EU Delegation - Zambia
  • IMF Zambia Reports
  • Zambia Daily Mail