Mozambique Security Report — 2026-05-21

Executive Summary

Mozambique's security environment during May 14-21, 2026 remains at HIGH threat level (4/5). The convergence of Islamist insurgency and political crisis creates a complex security landscape.

Key Developments

Cabo Delgado Insurgency

• ASWJ/IS-Mozambique attacks continued in Mocímboa da Praia and Macomia districts
• SAMIM (SADC Mission in Mozambique) force of 3,200 troops maintained operations
• Rwandan military contingent (2,500 troops) continued bilateral deployment in northern Cabo Delgado
• TotalEnergies Mozambique LNG ($20B) project remained in force majeure since 2021

Post-Election Crisis

• Opposition protests against October 2024 election results subsided but tensions persisted
• Over 300 deaths reported during post-election violence period
• EU election observation mission documented significant irregularities
• Political dialogue between FRELIMO government and RENAMO opposition produced framework agreement

Humanitarian Situation

• 1.3M internally displaced in Cabo Delgado; humanitarian access constrained by insecurity
• 2.5M people in food insecurity across northern and central provinces
• Cholera outbreaks in displacement camps; 15,000 cases in Q1 2026
• EU allocated €120M humanitarian response for Mozambique crisis

Economic Impact

• GDP growth at 4.5% but northern provinces severely affected by conflict
• LNG project delays cost estimated $50B in foregone investment
• Metical at 65 MZN/USD; inflation at 8.5%
• Mining sector (coal, graphite, heavy sands) maintained production in central provinces

EU-Mozambique Relations

• EUTM Mozambique trained 2,400 FADM personnel in counter-insurgency operations
• EU comprehensive strategy addressed security, governance, and development dimensions
• Global Gateway investment in Nacala Corridor infrastructure
• Fisheries partnership agreement generated €8.5M annually

Outlook

Mozambique's dual crisis (insurgency + political) requires integrated security and governance solutions. LNG investment resumption depends on sustained security improvements in Cabo Delgado. EU engagement provides critical training and development support but long-term stability requires domestic political reconciliation.

Sources

• OCHA Mozambique Situation Reports
• EUTM Mozambique Updates
• EU External Action - Mozambique
• Club of Mozambique News