Executive Summary

Bolivia's security environment is assessed at ELEVATED (3/5) during May 11-18, 2026. The ruling MAS (Movement for Socialism) party's internal split between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales has escalated to the point of creating parallel party structures, threatening political stability ahead of the 2025 general elections. Both factions have mobilized social movements and indigenous organizations in competitive demonstrations, creating road blockade and protest risks across the country.

Coca cultivation conflicts in the Chapare and Yungas regions persist as the central security challenge, intertwined with MAS factional politics — the Chapare being Morales' political stronghold. Declining natural gas revenues (Bolivia's primary export) have created acute dollar shortages and fuel subsidy pressures. The economy faces structural adjustment without the political consensus to implement reforms. Relations with the United States remain severed since the 2008 DEA expulsion, limiting counter-narcotics cooperation.

Key Developments

Political Situation

• MAS split deepened: Morales faction held rival party congress in Cochabamba, claiming legitimate party leadership
• Arce government responded by mobilizing loyalist unions and the COB (Bolivian Workers Central)
• Road blockades in Cochabamba-Santa Cruz highway lasted 6 days in May; $45M estimated economic losses
• Civic committees in Santa Cruz maintained autonomy demands; regional identity politics strengthening
• TSE (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) facing legitimacy questions ahead of 2025 elections; both MAS factions challenging rulings

Security Environment

• Chapare coca region: UNODC reported 30,600 hectares under cultivation; 8% increase over 2024
• Yungas coca conflicts: Violence between licensed and unlicensed growers; 3 killed in Nor Yungas in May
• Drug trafficking: Brazilian PCC and Colombian networks operating through Santa Cruz transit corridor
• Contraband economy estimated at 40% of GDP; fuel, electronics, and vehicles primary products
• Social protests: 340 road blockades recorded in 2026 YTD; primarily MAS factional and cost-of-living related
• Anti-narcotics: FELCN (special anti-narcotics force) seized 14 tons of cocaine in Q1; limited interdiction capacity

Economic Assessment

• GDP growth at 1.8% — well below regional average; gas revenue decline structural (depleting reserves)
• Dollar shortage: Parallel market rate at BOB 10.5/USD vs official 6.96; Central Bank reserves below $2B
• Fuel subsidies ($1.5B annually) unsustainable but politically toxic to reform
• Lithium: Nationalized development through YLB (Yacimientos de Litio Bolivianos) behind schedule; Chinese partnership with CATL advancing slowly
• Soy exports from Santa Cruz providing partial revenue offset; record harvest
• Inflation officially contained at 3.6% but food prices rising faster in urban centers

Regional Dynamics

• Bolivia-Chile: Maritime access demand remains cornerstone of foreign policy; no diplomatic progress
• Bolivia-Peru: Titicaca Lake water management cooperation advancing
• Mercosur associate membership maintained; trade integration limited
• Venezuela-Bolivia solidarity: Arce maintained political alignment with Maduro; practical cooperation minimal
• Brazil: Bilateral trade growing; infrastructure connectivity projects in eastern lowlands

Outlook

Bolivia faces a convergence of political crisis and economic structural adjustment that elevates risk through the 2025 election cycle. The MAS split creates unpredictable mobilization dynamics and potential for escalatory social conflict. Gas revenue decline necessitates economic reform that neither faction has the political capital to implement. Coca cultivation will increase absent effective alternative development and counter-narcotics capacity. Lithium potential remains unrealized, deferring the diversification that could address fiscal pressures.

Sources

• Los Tiempos investigative reporting
• Fundación Jubileo Economic Analysis
• UNODC Bolivia Coca Monitoring Report 2025
• Centro de Documentación e Información Bolivia (CEDIB)
• Bolivian Central Bank Economic Bulletins