Guyana: Stabroek Block Production Surge

ExxonMobil's Stabroek block (ExxonMobil 45%, Hess 30%, CNOOC 25%) continues its extraordinary production trajectory. Daily output reached 900,000 barrels per day in November 2025 following the August 2025 startup of the Yellowtail development, the fourth offshore project utilizing the FPSO ONE GUYANA — the largest floating production vessel on the block, with capacity of 250,000 bopd and two million barrels of storage. In February 2026, ExxonMobil finalized its purchase of the FPSO ONE GUYANA vessel.

The fifth development, Uaru, is expected to begin production in 2026, adding another 250,000 bpd and pushing total output past 1.0 million bpd by 2027. The sixth project, Whiptail, received government approval in April 2024 with a 2027 startup target. ExxonMobil plans to reach 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030 from eight total developments across the block. The US Energy Information Administration forecasts Guyana as a leading driver of non-OPEC crude growth in 2026 alongside Brazil and Argentina, confirming the country's rapid ascent as a globally significant petroleum producer.

Suriname: GranMorgu Advances

TotalEnergies (50%) and APA Corporation (50%) are advancing the GranMorgu project on Block 58, approximately 150 km offshore Suriname. The US$10.5–12.2 billion development targets the Sapakara and Krabdagu fields, with estimated recoverable reserves of approximately 760 million barrels. As of early 2026, the project is roughly 50% complete, with SBM Offshore constructing the FPSO vessel at a capacity of 220,000 bpd.

First oil is targeted for 2028, which will transform Suriname into a significant petroleum producer for the first time. The project is designed with low emissions intensity (under 16 kg CO₂e/boe). Between US$1–1.5 billion will be invested in local content, creating over 6,000 direct, indirect, and induced jobs. The scale of the GranMorgu development relative to Suriname's existing economy (GDP approximately US$4 billion) will require careful fiscal management and institutional capacity building to avoid resource curse dynamics.

Trinidad and Tobago: LNG Sector Challenges

Atlantic LNG's Point Fortin facility operates with a nameplate capacity of 14.8 million tonnes per year across four trains. However, Train 1 was permanently decommissioned in March 2025, reducing the facility to three operational trains. The plant has been running below full capacity due to Trinidad and Tobago's declining natural gas production from mature fields.

BP has been advancing upstream gas projects to increase feed gas supply, with multiple projects brought online in 2025. The government continues efforts to attract new upstream investment and has explored cross-border gas supply from Venezuela's Dragon field under US OFAC licensing arrangements. Trinidad's position as the Caribbean's dominant energy exporter is under structural pressure from declining reserves, and the government faces the strategic challenge of managing a gradual energy transition while maintaining LNG export revenue.

Essequibo Boundary Dispute: ICJ Oral Hearings

The International Court of Justice opened oral hearings on the merits of the case (Arbitral Award of 3 October 1899, Guyana v. Venezuela) in May 2026 at the Peace Palace in The Hague, scheduled 4–11 May. This represents the most consequential phase of the proceedings since Guyana filed its application in March 2018, seeking validation of the 1899 arbitral award that established the boundary.

Venezuela, under Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, has reiterated that the ICJ has no jurisdiction and will not recognize any ruling. Venezuela continues to refuse direct participation in the proceedings while asserting sovereignty over the Essequibo region — which constitutes approximately two-thirds of Guyana's internationally recognized territory. Guyana has received diplomatic support from CARICOM, the Commonwealth, the EU, and the OAS. A ruling on the merits is expected within 12–18 months. The stakes are exceptionally high given that much of Guyana's petroleum production occurs in waters adjacent to the disputed territory.

Guyana Revenue Governance

Guyana's Natural Resource Fund (NRF) held approximately US$3.25 billion by end-2025, with oil revenues estimated at US$2.79 billion for 2026. Revised withdrawal rules (2024) allow transfers up to US$2.5 billion annually to the national budget. In January 2026, the government tabled a record GY$1.558 trillion (US$7.48 billion) budget, allocating US$941 million to infrastructure development.

The NRF is overseen by a 22-member Public Accountability and Oversight Committee drawn from civil society, academia, and professional associations. Governance quality remains a contested political issue, with observers noting it is too early to assess whether Guyana will successfully translate oil wealth into broad-based development and institutional strengthening, or whether the resource curse dynamics visible in comparable petrostates will emerge.

Regional Renewable Energy Transition

The Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE) and IRENA signed a new MOU in 2026 to accelerate clean energy deployment across the region. Dominica is poised to commission the first geothermal plant in the English-speaking Caribbean as of April 2026. Grenada has updated its target to 100% renewable electricity by 2035, focusing on solar, geothermal, and battery storage. Near-shore ocean energy testing is expected to begin in 2026 in Barbados, Grenada, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, funded by the EU.

A 10.6 MW/21.2 MWh battery storage system is under early market engagement for Grenada's Maurice Bishop International Airport, supported by the World Bank. Overall, the region achieved roughly 13% renewable energy penetration by 2023 and must accelerate significantly to meet the aspirational 47% target, highlighting the scale of the investment gap facing Caribbean SIDS in the energy transition.

Outlook

The Caribbean energy outlook is dominated by Guyana's petroleum-driven transformation, which is reshaping the region's economic and geopolitical landscape. The ICJ proceedings on the Essequibo boundary represent the most significant legal risk to Guyana's development trajectory, though the practical impact of any ruling may be limited by Venezuela's non-participation. Suriname's GranMorgu project will create a second petroleum producer in the Continental Caribbean by 2028. Trinidad's structural decline as a gas producer will continue absent significant new discoveries. The renewable energy transition across island states remains critically underfunded relative to stated targets.

Sources

• ExxonMobil, Daily Oil Production Hits 900,000 Barrels in Guyana's Stabroek Block, November 2025
• TotalEnergies, GranMorgu in Suriname: Oil Project in Line with TotalEnergies' Transition Strategy
• US Energy Information Administration, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina Support Forecast Crude Oil Growth in 2026
• International Court of Justice, Case 171: Arbitral Award of 3 October 1899 (Guyana v. Venezuela)
• Global SWF, Natural Resource Fund — Guyana Profile
• CCREEE/IRENA, Strategic Partnership Memorandum of Understanding, 2026
• Atlantic LNG / Global Energy Monitor, Point Fortin Terminal Profile