Colombia Security Report — 2026-05-18

Executive Summary

Colombia's security environment during May 11-18, 2026 remains at HIGH threat level (4/5). The collapse of peace negotiations with multiple armed groups and record cocaine production drive persistent instability.

Key Developments

Armed Conflict

• ELN resumed offensive operations in Arauca after ceasefire breakdown; 23 security force casualties in May
• FARC EMC (Estado Mayor Central) expanded territorial control in Cauca and Nariño departments
• Segunda Marquetalia conducted attacks on oil infrastructure in Putumayo
• AGC (Clan del Golfo) maintained narcotrafficking corridors through Urabá region
• Social leader assassinations: 14 confirmed killings in May, targeting environmental and indigenous activists

Peace Process

• President Petro's "Total Peace" policy facing congressional opposition and military skepticism
• ELN negotiations suspended indefinitely following guerrilla attacks on military bases
• FARC dissident dialogue complicated by internal fragmentation between EMC factions
• Truth Commission implementation continued; reparation payments to 350,000 victims

Drug Trafficking

• UNODC confirmed 2,300 metric tons cocaine production in 2025, highest ever recorded
• Pacific route via Buenaventura and Tumaco remains primary export corridor
• Mexican cartels (CJNG, Sinaloa) increased direct presence in Colombian production zones
• US-Colombia counter-narcotics cooperation expanded with maritime interdiction focus

Economic and Social Security

• Venezuelan migration: 2.9 million Venezuelans in Colombia; labor market integration challenges
• Oil sector: Ecopetrol production declined 5% amid security incidents and transition policy
• Coffee sector affected by climate change; arabica yields down 12%
• Petro's tax reform implementation creating business uncertainty

Outlook

Colombia's security trajectory is negative in the near term. Multiple armed groups exploit the fragmented peace process while cocaine production sustains conflict economics. The 2026 congressional elections will test Petro's coalition. US counter-narcotics pressure will intensify.

Sources

• Fundación Ideas para la Paz (FIP)
• UNODC Colombia Coca Survey
• InSight Crime Colombia
• Indepaz Social Leader Monitor