SADC Security: DRC Ceasefire Fragile, Cabo Delgado Resilient, Zimbabwe Constitutional Crisis
DRC/Eastern Congo: M23 Offensive and Fragile Ceasefire (CRITICAL)
The M23 offensive, backed by 3,000-4,000 Rwandan Defense Force personnel, seized Goma (pop. 2M) in January 2025 and subsequently captured Bukavu (pop. 1.3M). By early 2026, M23 pushed toward Uvira via Kamanyola. On 9 May 2026, M23 began partial withdrawals from a dozen localities under ceasefire pressure; Wazalendo militia and FARDC retook Sange village on 11 May. However, the Congolese government is reportedly stalling on commitments from mid-April peace talks.
SAMIDRC — approximately 1,300 South African, Tanzanian, and Malawian troops — remains confined to bases in Goma and Sake after 20 SAMIDRC soldiers were killed in January 2025. Over 7 million internally displaced — the largest displacement crisis on Earth. Risk of wider regional conflagration remains HIGH.
Mozambique/Cabo Delgado: Resilient Insurgency (ELEVATED)
ASWJ/ISIS-Mozambique maintains operational capability with approximately 30 attacks in a single month in late 2025, killing at least 40 and displacing 20,000. At least 300,000 displaced since mid-2025. Insurgents mounted a surprise raid on Mocimboa da Praia in September 2025 demonstrating persistent jihadist networks.
Approximately 2,500 Rwandan troops remain the primary counterterrorism force following SAMIM withdrawal. TotalEnergies formally restarted its $20B LNG Area 1 project targeting first LNG by 2029, but security conditions remain precarious. The insurgency has proven resilient despite six years of military operations.
Eswatini: Pro-Democracy Pressure vs Royal Repression (MODERATE)
Africa's last absolute monarchy faces sustained pro-democracy pressure. In April 2026, the regime escalated repression with arrests, abductions, and targeted detention of youth leaders. Former MPs Mduduzi Bacede Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube received 25 and 18 year sentences respectively. Afrobarometer (December 2024) found 87% reject one-man rule; 67% support multiparty democracy. The gap between public sentiment and royal intransigence is widening.
Zimbabwe: Constitutional Crisis Deepens (ELEVATED)
Parliament gazetted Constitution Amendment Bill No. 3 in February 2026, proposing extension of presidential terms from 5 to 7 years, replacement of direct presidential elections with parliamentary selection, and consolidation of executive control. If passed, Mnangagwa could remain in office until 2030. In March, masked assailants stormed the National Constitutional Assembly offices, injuring constitutional law expert Lovemore Madhuku. Student leaders arrested in April for anti-amendment materials.
South Africa: GNU Under Strain, Organized Crime Endemic (ELEVATED)
The Government of National Unity faces existential strain ahead of 2026 local elections. EFF, MK Party, and ANC factions actively working to destabilize coalitions. Organized crime has reached "endemic" levels with SANDF deployed to protect critical infrastructure against sabotage. The crime-politics nexus has deepened with criminal networks identified within policing structures. Infrastructure sabotage (energy, rail, water) continues to erode state capacity.
Maritime Security: Mozambique Channel Trafficking (MODERATE)
The Mozambique Channel remains a primary conduit for heroin trafficking along the "Smack Track" from South Asia to East Africa and onward to Europe. The convergence of insurgency, narcotics trafficking, and IUU fishing creates conditions for escalation. South African Navy Operation Copper patrols remain intermittent and under-resourced.