Latin America Security: Ecuador Ground War, Venezuela Transition, Colombia Peace Collapse
Ecuador: Internal Armed Conflict and US Ground Operations
Ecuador remains in a state of internal armed conflict since January 2024. On 3 March 2026, Ecuadorian and US forces launched coordinated land operations against Los Choneros and Los Lobos — the first US-assisted ground operations on Ecuadorian soil. Operation Southern Spear has conducted 45+ maritime strikes with over 150 reported deaths. Both organizations were designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations in September 2025. Cartel fragmentation may increase localized violence even as major networks are disrupted.
Venezuela: Post-Maduro Transition Uncertainty
Vice President Delcy Rodriguez assumed interim leadership following Maduro's capture in January 2026. Political prisoners are being released and election planning is underway, though Chatham House estimates credible elections will exceed the six-month constitutional timeline. Opposition figures Machado and Gonzalez command approximately 70% popular support. Tren de Aragua continues autonomous transnational expansion across 11+ countries regardless of political transition.
Colombia: Total Peace Collapse
President Petro's Total Peace policy has effectively collapsed. ELN negotiations broke down after the January 2025 Catatumbo massacre. Armed group ranks have surged 85% to approximately 25,000 members. Between January-August 2025, 544 civilians were killed or injured by explosive devices (145% increase YoY). Drone attacks with explosives rose 138%. Cocaine production potential exceeded 3,000 metric tons in 2024. The 31 May 2026 presidential election will determine the policy's future.
Mexico: Cartel Fragmentation After Kingpin Removals
Mexican military killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho") in February 2026, triggering retaliatory violence. The Sinaloa Cartel remains fractured between Los Mayos and Los Chapitos following El Mayo Zambada's arrest. Both organizations are designated FTOs. Kingpin removals historically produce succession wars and territorial realignment — HIGH risk of escalating fragmentation violence.
Haiti: Gang Control Expands Beyond Capital
Armed gangs control approximately 90% of Port-au-Prince. Over 8,100 killings documented January-November 2025. Displacement has reached 1.45 million with 69% of movements now outside the capital. The UN Gang Suppression Force (Resolution 2793) is replacing the failed Kenya-led MSS mission — approximately 800 of 5,500 planned personnel deployed. 5.8 million face crisis-level food insecurity.
Brazil: Amazon Criminal Governance
Comando Vermelho and PCC have expanded into the Amazon, controlling illegal gold mining, drug routes, and logging. Criminal governance has substituted for state authority in remote communities. The Colombia-Brazil-Peru tri-border region sees violent competition between CV, PCC, Familia do Norte, and Colombian dissident groups.
Central America: Bukele Model Expansion
US deportations to El Salvador nearly doubled in Q1 2026 (5,033 vs 2,547). Bukele accepted 238 Venezuelan Tren de Aragua members into CECOT under a $6 million US deal. Prison population has surged to approximately 118,000 — 1.9% of population incarcerated. The mano dura model is being replicated regionally.