Caribbean Security: Haiti Collapse, Cuba Energy Crisis, Operation Southern Spear Intensifies
Haiti: Systemic Collapse and Gang Expansion (CRITICAL)
Gang coalition Viv Ansanm controls approximately 80% of Port-au-Prince. Gran Grif attacks in Artibonite (29 March-1 April 2026) killed at least 70 and displaced 6,000 — violence expanding beyond the capital. IDPs exceed 1.4 million (12% of population). 6.4 million require emergency assistance. The Kenya-led MSS has largely withdrawn; the UN Gang Suppression Force has deployed approximately 800 of 5,500 planned personnel with Chad as the largest contributor.
Jamaica: Lottery Scam-Funded Gang Violence (HIGH)
Gun violence in western parishes remains rooted in lottery scam conflicts. Operation "Scam Dun, Justice A Run" (December 2025-April 2026) resulted in 27 arrests and JMD $2.4 million recovered. Scam networks in the Montego Bay corridor generate up to USD $100,000 weekly per operator, funding weapons purchases and gang expansion. States of Emergency produce only temporary, localized suppression.
Trinidad & Tobago: Venezuelan Criminal Corridor (HIGH)
T&T recorded its deadliest year in 2024 at 45.7 homicides per 100,000. Tren de Aragua has expanded operations exploiting the 7-mile maritime gap to Venezuela. Local gangs cooperate with Venezuelan networks across narcotics, firearms, and human trafficking. Venezuelan state instability post-Operation Southern Spear will likely increase criminal displacement.
Cuba: Energy Collapse and Migration Risk (CRITICAL)
The US fuel blockade reduced Cuba's Venezuelan oil imports by approximately 90%. The national grid collapsed entirely on 16 March 2026, with a second collapse within a week. On 14 May 2026, Cuba confirmed exhaustion of oil and diesel reserves. Hospitals suspended operations. 5.9 million face food insecurity. Total state collapse could trigger mass maritime migration toward Florida.
Drug Trafficking: Operation Southern Spear (CRITICAL)
As of 8 May 2026, US military strikes have killed at least 194 people across 58 strikes. USCG offloaded $53 million in cocaine from Caribbean/Eastern Pacific interdictions in April 2026. Traffickers increasingly use AIS spoofing — a vessel transmitted false positions 16 nautical miles from actual location.
Dominican Republic: Border Securitization (ELEVATED)
The border wall is on track for 2026 completion with 12-foot concrete barriers, fiber optics, motion sensors, and drones. President Abinader deployed 11,000 troops and announced a $300 million dry-port network. Over 250,000 Haitians returned in 2025 — tripling previous rates.
Puerto Rico: Federal Counter-Narcotics Surge (ELEVATED)
A federal grand jury indicted 52 members of La Familia Nunca Muere in April 2026 for drug conspiracy. USCG seized 506 kg cocaine ($7M) in January 2026. Puerto Rico remains a primary Caribbean-to-mainland transit node.