South Korea Security Report — February 23, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: February 16 — February 23, 2026.

South Korea Security Analysis Report (February 16-23, 2026)

Executive Summary

During the period of February 16-23, 2026, South Korea's security landscape was marked by persistent regional tensions and significant developments in its defense posture and international relations. North Korea continued its aggressive military modernization, with leader Kim Jong Un emphasizing nuclear arsenal expansion and military transformation for the coming years. South Korea actively pursued advanced defense capabilities, including discussions with the United States on nuclear-powered submarines and a substantial increase in its 2026 defense budget to bolster its three-axis defense system and drone warfare capabilities. Diplomatic friction with Japan resurfaced over territorial disputes, while cybersecurity threats, particularly those leveraging AI, remained a critical concern. Concurrently, South Korea solidified its position as a burgeoning global defense exporter, seeking to expand its influence through strategic partnerships and arms deals.

Key Security Developments

• North Korea's Continued Military Modernization and Leadership Focus
  North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was reelected to the top post of the ruling Workers' Party, with delegates crediting him for bolstering the country's nuclear arsenal and strengthening its regional standing. State media reports from February 22, 2026, indicated Kim's intention to double down on accelerating a military nuclear program capable of threatening US allies and the American mainland. Kim also announced intentions for further "transformation" of the military in 2026, with plans for enhanced capabilities over the next five years based on decisions from the 9th Party Congress.

• South Korea's Pursuit of Nuclear-Powered Submarines
  South Korea is actively engaged in discussions with the United States regarding the introduction of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). Foreign Minister Cho Hyun confirmed on February 9, 2026, that a US negotiation team was scheduled to visit South Korea in February to discuss follow-up actions on agreements, including nuclear-powered submarines and revisions to the US-South Korea nuclear accord. This interest reflects South Korea's aim to address capability gaps in countering North Korea's evolving submarine-based nuclear threat.

• Strained US-South Korea Joint Military Exercises
  The announcement date for the annual "Freedom Shield" joint military exercise, typically held in spring, was postponed due to disagreements between South Korean and US militaries over the scale of on-field drills. South Korea's government reportedly sought to minimize outdoor exercises, viewing it as a reconciliatory gesture towards Pyongyang to foster "peaceful coexistence." However, US Forces Korea expressed reluctance, as additional troops and equipment had already arrived for the drills.

• Renewed Diplomatic Friction with Japan over Dokdo/Takeshima
  South Korea formally protested Japan's "Takeshima Day" event held by Shimane Prefecture on February 22, 2026, and the attendance of a senior Japanese government official. The South Korean foreign ministry reiterated that the islets, known as Dokdo in South Korea, are unequivocally its sovereign territory historically, geographically, and under international law. This territorial dispute remains a persistent source of tension between the two nations.

• South Korea Proposed Excluding Japan from Joint Air Training
  It was confirmed on February 23, 2026, that the South Korean government proposed excluding Japan from a suggested South Korea-US-Japan joint air training. The Defense Ministry cited scheduling issues, including the Lunar New Year holiday and Takeshima Day, and suggested a bilateral South Korea-US training instead, which the US did not accept. Subsequently, the US military conducted air training with four B-52 bombers and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force in the East Sea and East China Sea on February 16 and 18.

• Escalating Cybersecurity Threats and AI Concerns
  South Korea experienced a sharp rise in cyber incidents in 2025, with authorities warning that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will play an increasing role in cyber threats in 2026. The number of reported incidents rose by 26.3% in 2025, with server hacking, DDoS attacks, and malware infections increasing. High-profile breaches, such as the Coupang data breach, were attributed to management failures rather than sophisticated attacks. The financial and telecommunications sectors are particularly targeted due to sensitive data.

• Significant Growth in Defense Acquisitions and Industry Exports
  South Korea is rapidly advancing its defense industry, aspiring to become one of the top defense exporters by 2030. Hanwha Aerospace broke ground on its first European production center in Romania on February 12, 2026, aiming to expand its European footprint and develop advanced military systems. Additionally, Hanwha became a finalist in Canada's $12 billion submarine procurement competition. Embraer also completed the final assembly of the first C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft for the Republic of Korea Air Force, with factory flights set to begin.

• Progress on Wartime Operational Control (OPCON) Transfer
  South Korea aims to finalize a roadmap for accelerating the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from the United States by April 2026 and complete Full Operational Capability (FOC) verification by October 2026. This aligns with the US 2026 National Defense Strategy, which emphasizes South Korea taking primary responsibility for conventional deterrence against North Korea with more limited US support.

• Advanced Drone Warfare Development
  The Ministry of National Defense's 2026 business plan, announced in December 2025, focuses on developing 500,000 war drones using AI and advanced science and technology. This initiative, with an expanded budget, aims to greatly enhance the armed forces' independent deterrence and future warfare capabilities, including manned-unmanned teaming systems.

• Inter-Korean Relations and Civilian Drone Incursions
  South Korea moved to revive inter-Korean no-fly zones after confirming four civilian drone incursions into North Korea between September 2025 and January 2026. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young expressed regret to Pyongyang and announced plans to partially restore the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. North Korea, however, has rejected dialogue offers from the US and South Korea, with Kim Jong Un declaring the South a permanent enemy in 2024.

• Consideration of NATO-led PURL Initiative
  South Korea is considering joining the NATO-led PURL (Procurement for Ukraine's Resilience and Logistics) initiative, designed to purchase US weapons for Ukraine. NATO formally requested South Korea's participation, and if Seoul decides to join, it could strengthen its defense ties with Europe and expand arms exports to NATO member states.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

The recent security developments in South Korea underscore a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific. The ongoing military modernization in North Korea, coupled with Kim Jong Un's explicit focus on nuclear arsenal expansion, continues to be the primary driver of instability on the Korean Peninsula. This has prompted South Korea to accelerate its own defense enhancements, including the ambitious pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines and advanced drone capabilities, which could significantly alter the regional balance of power.

The US-South Korea alliance, a cornerstone of regional security, is undergoing a significant transition. The US 2026 National Defense Strategy signals a shift towards South Korea assuming "primary responsibility for deterring North Korea with critical but more limited U.S. support," allowing the US to concentrate more on the broader Indo-Pacific and China-based deterrence. This rebalancing, while aiming for greater South Korean strategic autonomy, is evident in the recent disagreements over the scale of joint military exercises, where Seoul's desire for de-escalation with Pyongyang clashed with Washington's readiness posture. Such divergences, if not carefully managed, could introduce complexities into alliance coordination.

Relations with Japan remain a delicate balancing act. Despite efforts to strengthen trilateral cooperation with the US, the persistent territorial dispute over Dokdo/Takeshima and South Korea's proposed exclusion of Japan from a joint air training highlight underlying historical and political sensitivities. While National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac reaffirmed commitment to the trilateral partnership, these incidents demonstrate that deep-seated issues can quickly resurface and challenge broader security alignment. North Korea's strengthened ties with Russia and China, including increased trade and military cooperation, further complicate regional dynamics by potentially blunting the effects of sanctions and bolstering Pyongyang's military capabilities and leverage in international relations. South Korea's growing role as a global defense exporter, particularly to Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, positions it as an increasingly influential player, contributing to regional defense capabilities and potentially diversifying its diplomatic leverage beyond traditional alliances.

Military and Defense Analysis

South Korea's military and defense posture is undergoing a robust transformation, driven by the persistent threat from North Korea and a strategic shift towards greater self-reliance and advanced capabilities. The 2026 defense budget, finalized at KRW 65.8642 trillion, represents the largest increase since 2019, with a substantial 11.9% allocation for capability development. This funding is primarily directed towards advancing the three-axis defense system, which includes the "kill chain" (preemptive attack), Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR), designed to counter North Korea's nuclear and WMD threats.

Modernization programs are accelerating across all branches. The Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) is set to receive its first Embraer C-390 Millennium military transport aircraft, enhancing airlift capabilities. The plan also includes securing additional KF-21 fighter jets, Cheongung-II missiles, and Aegis destroyers. A significant focus is on unmanned forces, with a goal to develop 500,000 military drones using AI and advanced science and technology, alongside manned-unmanned teaming systems. This expansion of drone capabilities is intended for high-risk missions, including attack drones and medium loitering munitions. The discussions regarding the acquisition of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN) represent a major leap in naval power projection and anti-submarine warfare capabilities, directly addressing North Korea's evolving submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) threat. The ongoing process for the Wartime Operational Control (OPCON) transfer from the US to South Korea, with FOC verification targeted for October 2026, signifies Seoul's increasing responsibility for its own conventional deterrence and defense.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, South Korea is likely to experience continued heightened tensions with North Korea, particularly as Pyongyang outlines its military goals at the ongoing Workers' Party Congress. North Korea's rejection of dialogue and its declaration of South Korea as a "permanent enemy" suggest a period of sustained brinkmanship. The US-South Korea alliance will remain a central focus, with ongoing negotiations regarding the scale of the "Freedom Shield" exercises and the broader implications of the US National Defense Strategy's call for greater South Korean responsibility. Cybersecurity threats, especially those leveraging AI for sophisticated attacks, are expected to persist and potentially increase, requiring continuous vigilance and enhanced defensive measures in critical sectors.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: The inter-Korean border, both land and maritime, remains a critical flashpoint, with potential for further civilian or military drone incursions and subsequent escalations. The Dokdo/Takeshima territorial dispute with Japan, particularly around symbolic dates or statements, could reignite diplomatic rows and complicate trilateral security cooperation. The scale and nature of joint military exercises with the US will be a sensitive issue, as Seoul balances deterrence with efforts to de-escalate with Pyongyang. Any miscalculation or perceived provocation during these exercises could lead to a rapid increase in tensions.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include any new missile tests or military provocations from North Korea following its Party Congress, which could signal new strategic capabilities or a more aggressive posture. Progress in the OPCON transfer process and the outcomes of US-South Korea discussions on nuclear-powered submarines will indicate the pace and direction of alliance modernization. The trajectory of South Korea's defense exports, particularly new deals with European or Southeast Asian nations, will reflect its growing influence and strategic partnerships. Finally, the evolution of cybersecurity threats, especially the sophistication of AI-driven attacks and the effectiveness of South Korea's countermeasures, will be crucial for national security.

Strategic recommendations: South Korea should prioritize maintaining a strong and adaptable alliance with the United States, ensuring clear communication and coordination on defense strategies, particularly regarding OPCON transfer and nuclear deterrence. Simultaneously, Seoul should continue its efforts to manage relations with Japan through diplomatic channels, seeking to de-escalate territorial disputes while preserving the broader framework for trilateral security cooperation. Investing heavily in defense modernization, especially in advanced areas like AI-powered drones and naval capabilities, is essential to enhance independent deterrence. Furthermore, South Korea must significantly bolster its cybersecurity infrastructure and develop robust AI-driven defense mechanisms to counter evolving cyber threats. Leveraging its burgeoning defense industry for strategic partnerships and exports can serve as a tool for diplomatic influence and economic security.