Madagascar Security Report — 2026-05-21

Executive Summary

Madagascar's security environment during May 14-21, 2026 remains at HIGH threat level (4/5). Following the October 2025 military coup, the country faces political instability, Russian influence expansion, and geopolitical competition in the Indian Ocean.

Key Developments

Military Junta

• October 2025: Military-backed coup installed junta leader Michael Randrianirina, deposing President Rajoelina
• March 2026: Government dissolved, marking another stage of prolonged political crisis
• Democratic institutions suspended; no timeline for return to civilian rule announced
• African Union reportedly considering actions to limit Russian presence

Russian Influence

• Junta leader visited Russia on first official state visit; Putin pledged expanded cooperation
• New political party "Patriotic Awakening of the United Madagascar" openly declares Russian alignment
• Russia-Africa Corps presence potentially expanding to Indian Ocean region
• Three-way competition between Russia, US, and France for influence intensifying

Economic Impact

• GDP contraction expected following political instability
• Vanilla exports (world's largest producer) disrupted by governance uncertainty
• Mining sector (nickel, cobalt, graphite) investment confidence declined
• Food insecurity worsened affecting 2.5M people in southern Madagascar (Grand Sud)
• Per capita income among world's lowest ($520) with deteriorating trend

Security Situation

• Military consolidating control in major cities; political opposition suppressed
• Dahalo (cattle rustlers) attacks continued in southern and southwestern regions
• Rosewood trafficking networks exploiting governance vacuum
• Urban crime in Antananarivo increased amid political uncertainty

EU-Madagascar Relations

• EU suspended development cooperation pending return to constitutional order
• French historical influence in crisis as Russia expands engagement
• EU concerned about Russian strategic foothold in Indian Ocean
• Humanitarian assistance channels maintained despite political sanctions

Outlook

Madagascar's trajectory under military rule is deeply concerning. Russian engagement mirrors patterns seen in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The Indian Ocean strategic dimension adds geopolitical significance beyond the domestic crisis. Return to democratic governance is the prerequisite for normalized EU partnership.

Sources

• Critical Threats - Africa File
• Robert Lansing Institute Analysis
• Africanews Reporting