Indonesia Security Report — February 23, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: February 16 — February 23, 2026.

Executive Summary

Indonesia has demonstrated a significant shift in its foreign policy this past week, committing to deploy up to 8,000 troops for a potential multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza by June 2026, with an advance team of 1,000 ready by early April. This decision coincides with President Prabowo Subianto's visit to Washington, where he engaged in crucial trade discussions with the United States and attended the inaugural meeting of President Donald Trump's "Board of Peace" (BoP) initiative. Concurrently, Indonesia is advancing its defense modernization programs, with the anticipated arrival of more Rafale fighter jets and ongoing negotiations for other key military assets. Domestically, a proposed Cybersecurity and Resilience Bill has drawn criticism for its potential implications on privacy and state oversight. These developments underscore Indonesia's evolving geopolitical strategy, balancing engagement with major global powers while addressing internal security and defense needs.

Key Security Developments

• Gaza Peacekeeping Commitment
  Indonesia is preparing to deploy 1,000 troops to Gaza by early April 2026, as part of a proposed multinational peacekeeping force, with a total of 8,000 soldiers expected to be ready by June 2026. This deployment, which has a non-combatant, humanitarian mandate focusing on civilian protection, medical services, and reconstruction, is contingent on the consent of the Palestinian authority and international mechanisms. The Indonesian Foreign Ministry stated on February 14, 2026, that military participation should not be interpreted as a normalization of political relations with any party, as Jakarta does not recognize Israel. President Prabowo Subianto reaffirmed Indonesia's readiness to contribute at the Board of Peace meeting on February 19, 2026, where the US also asked Indonesia to be the deputy commander of the stabilization force.

• President Prabowo's US Visit and Trade Deal
  President Prabowo Subianto commenced a working visit to the United States on Monday, February 16, 2026, to hold a bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump. The visit aimed to strengthen relations and discuss strategic cooperation, including the signing of a reciprocal trade pact. On February 19, 2026, the White House announced a trade agreement where Indonesia will eliminate tariffs for 99% of American goods, and the US will maintain tariffs on most Indonesian goods at 19%. The deal also includes Indonesia agreeing to remove restrictions on critical mineral exports to the US.

• Participation in the Board of Peace (BoP)
  President Prabowo Subianto attended the first meeting of President Donald Trump's Board of Peace (BoP) in Washington on February 19, 2026. Indonesia's decision to join the BoP and contribute troops to the International Stabilization Force (ISF) in Gaza has drawn widespread criticism domestically from academics and civil society, who question its consistency with Indonesia's long-standing independent and active foreign policy principles. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) urged the House of Representatives (DPR) to oversee Indonesia's involvement, citing concerns about state sovereignty and the safety of TNI soldiers.

• Defense Acquisitions: Rafale Fighter Jets
  Indonesia is set to receive the next batch of French-made Rafale fighter jets when they are technically ready, following the arrival of the first three units last month (January 2026). Indonesia has placed orders for a total of 42 Rafale jets as part of a major upgrade to its airpower.

• Naval Modernization and Acquisitions
  The Indonesian Navy (TNI-AL) received the KRI Canopus-936 warship during a handover ceremony in Germany on Thursday, February 12, 2026. Additionally, the KRI Prabu Siliwangi-321 warship officially began its voyage to Indonesia from Italy on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. Indonesia is also in the process of acquiring its first aircraft carrier, the Italy-built Giuseppe Garibaldi, which is expected to arrive before the military's anniversary on October 5, 2026. Furthermore, on February 10, 2026, discussions were held regarding a grant of patrol boats from the Japanese government worth 1.9 billion yen (Rp 205 billion).

• Cybersecurity and Resilience Bill Concerns
  A study by Indonesia's Lokataru Foundation, conducted between October 2025 and February 2026, identified at least 22 major concerns in the Academic Draft and the draft Cybersecurity and Resilience Bill (KKS Bill). The foundation warned on February 17, 2026, that the proposed legislation risks blurring the lines between cybersecurity frameworks and the governance of citizens' digital activities, potentially leading to an overly state-centric approach to monitoring and regulating digital life and threatening privacy rights through expanded digital surveillance.

• Strengthening Defense Industry Independence
  On February 22, 2026, it was reported that DEFEND ID, Indonesia's state-owned defense holding, was ranked 96th in the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) list of the world's top 100 arms-producing and military services companies in 2024. This achievement is attributed to industry consolidation and increased domestic procurement. There is a continued call from the House of Representatives to strengthen the domestic defense industry through consistent policies, sustainable budgets, and synergy between state-owned and private enterprises.

• Diplomatic Engagement with China
  Indonesia and China reaffirmed their commitment to strengthen their strategic partnership, marking the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations. President Prabowo reiterated Indonesia's determination to continuously enhance relations for mutual bilateral interests and regional stability and prosperity. Premier Li Qiang expressed China's readiness to work closely with Indonesia on increasingly complex global challenges.

• Leadership of UN Human Rights Council
  Indonesia is set to lead the 61st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva, Switzerland, from February 23 to March 31, 2026. This marks the first time Indonesia has held the leadership since the body's formation in 2006.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

Indonesia's security developments this week highlight a complex and evolving geopolitical strategy, particularly its engagement with the United States and its role in the Gaza conflict. The commitment to deploy up to 8,000 troops to a US-backed peacekeeping force in Gaza, and President Prabowo's participation in the Board of Peace, signals a notable departure from Indonesia's traditional "non-aligned" foreign policy. This move could enhance Indonesia's standing with the US and its allies, positioning Jakarta as a more active contributor to global security initiatives. However, it also carries the risk of being perceived as aligning too closely with one major power, potentially straining its leverage with other actors like China and its credibility as a neutral stabilizing force within ASEAN.

The reciprocal trade agreement with the US, particularly the provisions on critical minerals, further intertwines Indonesia's economic and strategic interests with Washington. While this could offer economic benefits, some analysts express concern that it might disproportionately benefit foreign supply chains and compromise Indonesia's control over strategic national assets without clear commitments for domestic industrial development. Simultaneously, Indonesia has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening its strategic partnership with China, celebrating 75 years of diplomatic relations and discussing broader economic and strategic cooperation. This dual engagement reflects Indonesia's "multi-alignment" approach, aiming to secure benefits from both major powers while navigating intensifying great power competition.

The domestic criticism surrounding Indonesia's involvement in the Board of Peace and the proposed troop deployment to Gaza underscores the internal challenges of balancing national interests with international commitments. The potential for the BoP to be seen as legitimizing actions against Palestine, or for Indonesia to incur significant financial costs, could impact public sentiment and parliamentary oversight. Regionally, Indonesia's active diplomatic efforts, including its upcoming leadership of the UN Human Rights Council, demonstrate its desire to maintain influence and contribute to global governance, even as its foreign policy undergoes significant shifts.

Military and Defense Analysis

Indonesia's military and defense posture is undergoing a significant modernization drive, with a clear focus on enhancing its air and naval capabilities. The anticipated arrival of more Rafale fighter jets and ongoing discussions for other advanced aircraft like the KF-21 and KAAN underscore a commitment to upgrading its air force. These acquisitions are crucial for maintaining air superiority and projecting power within its vast archipelagic territory and beyond. The confirmed plans to acquire 42 Chinese J-10 fighter aircraft, with a budget approved for 2026, further diversifies Indonesia's defense sourcing and reflects its multi-alignment strategy in defense procurement.

In terms of naval power, the recent reception of the KRI Canopus-936 and the voyage of the KRI Prabu Siliwangi-321 from Italy signify a steady enhancement of the Indonesian Navy's fleet. The ambitious plan to acquire the Giuseppe Garibaldi aircraft carrier from Italy, expected by October 2026, represents a substantial leap in Indonesia's maritime capabilities, potentially allowing for greater reach in military operations and humanitarian missions. While the defense budget proposal for 2026, amounting to 187.1 trillion rupiahs (about 11.4 billion US dollars), has been approved by the House of Representatives, concerns exist regarding the financial implications of international commitments, such as the potential costs associated with the Board of Peace. The government is also actively promoting the domestic defense industry, with DEFEND ID gaining international recognition, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers and increase local content in defense equipment.

The readiness of 8,000 Indonesian troops for a potential peacekeeping mission in Gaza by June 2026 demonstrates a significant commitment of personnel and resources. While the mission is humanitarian and non-combatant, it will undoubtedly test the logistical and operational capabilities of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI). This deployment, coupled with ongoing modernization efforts, indicates a strategic intent to enhance Indonesia's capacity for both conventional defense and international peacekeeping operations, aligning with its aspiration to be a "bridge-builder and stability provider" in the region.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, Indonesia's focus will likely remain on the Gaza peacekeeping mission. The deployment of the advance team of 1,000 troops by early April 2026 will be a critical logistical and diplomatic undertaking, requiring careful coordination with international partners and the Palestinian authority. Further details regarding the mandate, operational parameters, and funding for the larger 8,000-strong force are expected to emerge. Concurrently, the implications of the US-Indonesia trade deal, particularly concerning critical minerals, will be closely watched, with potential for further negotiations or adjustments as the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs introduces new dynamics. The debate surrounding the Cybersecurity and Resilience Bill is also likely to intensify, with civil society groups pushing for greater transparency and human rights protections.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: A significant flashpoint remains the domestic reception and parliamentary oversight of Indonesia's involvement in the Board of Peace and the Gaza deployment. Public and political scrutiny over the financial costs and the perceived alignment with US foreign policy could generate internal dissent. The implementation of the critical minerals aspect of the US trade deal also presents a risk, as Indonesia seeks to balance foreign investment with its own industrial development goals. In the broader regional context, while not explicitly highlighted this week, the ongoing dynamics in the South China Sea and Indonesia's balancing act between the US and China will continue to be a delicate act, with potential for increased pressure from either side.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include the progress and public acceptance of the Gaza peacekeeping deployment, including any challenges encountered during the initial phase. The ongoing discussions and potential amendments to the Cybersecurity and Resilience Bill will reveal the government's responsiveness to civil society concerns. Further announcements regarding defense acquisitions, particularly the delivery schedule of the Rafale jets and progress on the Giuseppe Garibaldi aircraft carrier, will indicate the pace of military modernization. Additionally, any new developments in Indonesia's diplomatic engagements with both the US and China, especially concerning regional security dialogues or economic partnerships, will be crucial for understanding its evolving multi-alignment strategy.

Strategic recommendations: Indonesia should prioritize clear and consistent communication regarding its foreign policy decisions, especially concerning the Gaza mission and its engagement with the Board of Peace, to manage domestic expectations and maintain international credibility. Strengthening parliamentary oversight and public engagement in these critical decisions can help mitigate internal criticism. Furthermore, in its economic dealings, particularly on critical minerals, Indonesia should ensure that agreements with major powers include robust provisions for technology transfer and domestic industrial development to maximize national benefits and avoid becoming solely a raw material supplier. Continued investment in its domestic defense industry, coupled with diversified procurement, will enhance strategic autonomy. Finally, Indonesia should leverage its leadership role in the UN Human Rights Council to advocate for its independent foreign policy principles and promote regional stability through multilateral platforms.