China Security Report — February 25, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: February 18 — February 25, 2026.

Executive Summary

During the period of February 18-25, 2026, China demonstrated an assertive and modernizing security posture across multiple domains. Significant military activities included naval and air combat readiness patrols in the South China Sea in response to regional joint exercises, and participation in trilateral naval drills with Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. Beijing's diplomatic efforts focused on managing relations with the EU amidst economic security concerns and engaging with the US, while simultaneously issuing warnings against perceived infringements on its "red lines" regarding Taiwan and US military presence in the Middle East. Cybersecurity threats linked to China escalated, particularly targeting the Philippines, coinciding with the implementation of China's amended Cybersecurity Law which broadens enforcement powers. These developments underscore China's commitment to safeguarding its territorial claims, expanding its global influence, and enhancing its military and cyber capabilities in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.

Key Security Developments

• South China Sea Combat Readiness Patrols
  The Chinese military conducted naval and air combat readiness patrols in the territorial waters of the South China Sea from February 16 to February 17, 2026. This action was explicitly stated by Zhai Shichen, spokesperson for the Chinese People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command, as a response to joint patrols organized by the Philippines and "countries outside the region," which China views as undermining regional peace and stability. The patrols underscore China's resolve to defend its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the contested waters.

• Trilateral Naval Drills in Strait of Hormuz
  Russia, China, and Iran launched the "Maritime Security Belt 2026" naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz around February 17-19, 2026. China's participation included naval assets from its Djibouti-based 48th Flotilla, specifically the Type 052DL guided-missile destroyer Tangshan (D122), the Type 054A frigate Daqing (F576), and the Type 903A replenishment ship Taihu (K889). These exercises signal deepening military coordination among the three nations and are seen as a response to the reinforcement of US naval presence in the Gulf, intensifying strategic competition over this critical energy chokepoint.

• Escalating Cyber Threats Against the Philippines
  The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) warned on February 19, 2026, that cyber threats against the Philippines from China-based actors are intensifying due to geopolitical tensions. AFP Cyber Command chief Brigadier General Joey Fontiveros stated that the Philippines faces persistent cyber attacks, including malware deployment, DDoS attacks, data leaks, and website compromises, linked to territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea. High-risk sectors include public administration, educational services, and finance.

• China's Amended Cybersecurity Law Takes Effect
  China's amended Cybersecurity Law (CSL), which was approved in October 2025, officially entered into force on January 1, 2026, with reports detailing its implications emerging throughout February. The amendments significantly increase financial penalties for cybersecurity breaches, expand the government's power to enforce against extraterritorial activities jeopardizing China's cybersecurity, and set policy goals for AI governance. This reflects China's heightened focus on cybersecurity and its intent to strengthen regulatory scrutiny.

• Draft Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law
  On February 7, 2026, China unveiled a draft Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law. This proposed legislation would allow Chinese authorities to impose exit bans for up to three years on individuals convicted of cybercrime, even after serving their sentences. The draft aims to expand enforcement powers and target cross-border online fraud networks, applying not only to those directly responsible but also to individuals deemed to have assisted such activities.

• China's LEO "Regulatory Flooding" Strategy
  A comprehensive analysis published on February 19, 2026, detailed China's pivot from technical catch-up to a "regulatory flooding" strategy in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). China has submitted unprecedented filings with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) for satellite constellations totaling approximately 203,000 spacecraft, effectively challenging SpaceX's first-mover advantage. This strategy aims to redefine orbital governance as state-supported critical infrastructure and could slow competitors' deployment timelines by reserving vast portions of the finite interference budget.

• US-China Diplomatic Tensions Over Taiwan Arms Sales
  Reports on February 23, 2026, indicated that the United States is reportedly hesitating to fulfill its next arms sales to Taiwan, valued at $20 billion, due to concerns it could derail an upcoming visit by US President Donald Trump to Beijing. Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping reportedly warned Trump against these sales in a phone call on February 16, threatening to upend the Beijing visit if the sales proceed. This highlights Taiwan as a critical flashpoint in US-China relations.

• China's Warning Against US Military Presence in Palestinian Territories
  On February 21, 2026, China issued a stark warning rejecting US military ambitions and plans for military bases in the Palestinian territories, particularly around the Gaza Strip. Beijing views such massive US military investments as "provocative and extremely dangerous" and part of a broader US strategy to bolster its direct presence and militarize maritime routes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea. China emphasized that land routes are the only effective solution for aid delivery.

• US-Philippines Reaffirm Mutual Defense Treaty
  During the 12th Philippines-United States Bilateral Strategic Dialogue (BSD) held on February 16, 2026, both nations reaffirmed their commitments to the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT). They reiterated that the MDT extends to any armed attack against either country's armed forces, including the coast guard, anywhere in the Pacific, including the South China Sea. This dialogue reinforces the alliance amidst ongoing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea.

• Chinese Jets Scrambled in Response to US Exercise
  On February 18, 2026, US forces in Korea conducted an air training exercise over the West Sea, prompting China to scramble its jets. The Chinese military tracked and monitored the activities, staying on alert and responding in accordance with laws and regulations. This incident underscores the continued close monitoring and potential for friction in airspace near the Korean Peninsula.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

China's security developments from February 18-25, 2026, significantly impact regional stability and its relations with major powers. The naval and air combat readiness patrols in the South China Sea and the trilateral "Maritime Security Belt 2026" drills with Russia and Iran project China's growing blue-water capabilities and its intent to challenge the US-led security architecture. These actions contribute to heightened tensions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly with the Philippines, which has reaffirmed its mutual defense treaty with the US. The joint exercises with Russia and Iran also signal a strengthening of an anti-Western alignment, impacting global strategic balances and potentially influencing energy security given the Strait of Hormuz's critical role.

Relations with the United States remain a complex mix of potential engagement and deep-seated friction. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's remarks at the Munich Security Conference and subsequent statements highlighted a desire for "bright prospects" in US-China relations, contingent on the US avoiding "decoupling" and "Taiwan independence." However, the reported US hesitation on Taiwan arms sales due to concerns over derailing a Trump-Xi summit illustrates the transactional nature and fragility of high-level diplomatic engagements. China's strong rejection of US military plans in the Palestinian territories further demonstrates its willingness to challenge US geopolitical moves beyond its immediate region, positioning itself as a vocal critic of perceived Western unilateralism.

EU-China relations are characterized by "managed competition," with economic engagement continuing despite underlying tensions related to economic security and geopolitical risks. While diplomatic channels have reopened and trade remains resilient, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which came into force on January 1, 2026, is a point of contention, with China viewing it as a new form of trade protectionism. This dynamic suggests that while outright rupture is unlikely, the relationship will be shaped by a cautious approach, balancing economic interdependence with strategic divergence and regulatory differences.

Military and Defense Analysis

China's military and defense posture during this period reflects a continued trajectory of modernization and assertive force projection. The 7.2% increase in its 2025 defense budget to $245 billion (reported in February 2026) reinforces its position as the world's second-largest military spender, enabling sustained investment in advanced capabilities. This spending supports the ongoing modernization of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), with a focus on developing new missiles, ships, submarines, and surveillance technologies, aiming for full military modernization by 2035.

Key capability developments include the entry into service of two new Type 094 nuclear submarines equipped with upgraded JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missiles, significantly enhancing China's strategic nuclear deterrent. US intelligence estimates project China to more than double its nuclear arsenal to over 1,000 warheads by 2030, driven by additional ICBM deployments. Furthermore, the Type 076 landing helicopter dock (LHD) Sichuan, China's newest amphibious assault vessel, is reportedly capable of deploying up to six GJ-21 naval stealth drones, which would greatly enhance the survivability and strike capacity of long-distance PLA Navy task groups. The PLA's 2026 military training cycle, launched earlier in the year, emphasizes rapid deployment, joint integration, and command coordination using advanced platforms like J-20 stealth fighters and DF-17 hypersonic missiles, signaling a doctrinal shift towards "intelligentized warfare" and the integration of unmanned systems.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, China is likely to maintain its assertive stance in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. We can anticipate continued naval and air patrols in disputed waters, particularly in response to perceived provocations or joint exercises by the US and its allies. The cybersecurity landscape will remain highly active, with China-based actors likely to continue targeting critical infrastructure and government entities in neighboring countries, especially the Philippines, as geopolitical tensions persist. The implementation of China's amended Cybersecurity Law and the proposed Cybercrime Prevention and Control Law will likely lead to increased domestic enforcement and potentially broader extraterritorial application, impacting foreign businesses and individuals. Diplomatic engagements with the EU will continue to be characterized by "managed competition," with both sides seeking to balance economic interests against strategic divergences and regulatory challenges.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: The Taiwan Strait remains the most critical flashpoint. Any perceived movement towards "Taiwan independence" or significant US arms sales to Taiwan could trigger a strong military and diplomatic response from Beijing, potentially involving intensified "gray-zone" measures, cyber disruptions, or limited blockade-style pressure. The South China Sea is another high-risk area, where continued Chinese assertiveness and counter-responses from the Philippines and its allies could lead to maritime incidents or accidental clashes. The Strait of Hormuz also presents a flashpoint, with the recent trilateral naval drills involving China, Russia, and Iran signaling a challenge to US naval dominance and increasing the complexity of maritime security in the Middle East.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include the frequency and scale of PLA military exercises in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, particularly any drills simulating blockades or amphibious assaults. The nature and volume of US arms sales to Taiwan and any high-level diplomatic visits will be crucial signals. In the cyber domain, tracking reports of state-sponsored cyberattacks attributed to China, especially those targeting critical infrastructure, will be important. Observing the implementation and enforcement of China's new cybersecurity and cybercrime laws will provide insights into its evolving digital governance and its impact on international entities. Finally, the rhetoric and actions surrounding EU-China trade relations, particularly concerning the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, will indicate the direction of their "managed competition."

Strategic recommendations: For nations interacting with China, a strategy of calibrated deterrence and engagement is advisable. This involves clearly communicating "red lines" and maintaining robust defensive capabilities, while also keeping diplomatic channels open for dialogue and de-escalation. Strengthening cybersecurity defenses and fostering international cooperation against state-sponsored cyber threats is paramount. For businesses, a thorough review of cybersecurity compliance under China's new laws is essential, along with contingency planning for potential disruptions. In regional flashpoints like the South China Sea, supporting multilateral diplomatic efforts and upholding international law can help manage tensions. Finally, closely monitoring China's military modernization, particularly its nuclear and space capabilities, is crucial for understanding its long-term strategic ambitions and adjusting regional security postures accordingly.

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