China Security Report — February 24, 2026

Security analysis based on open-source intelligence and web research. Period: February 17 — February 24, 2026.

Executive Summary

China's security posture during the period of February 17-24, 2026, was characterized by a blend of assertive military activities, cautious diplomatic engagements, and persistent cybersecurity challenges. Beijing conducted significant joint naval drills with Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling deepening military coordination and challenging US naval dominance in the Gulf. Concurrently, China maintained its assertive stance in the South China Sea with combat readiness patrols, responding to increased trilateral cooperation between the US, Australia, and the Philippines. Diplomatically, China engaged in high-level talks with the US and EU, seeking stable relations while facing scrutiny over human rights and cybersecurity. Domestically, concerns over the vulnerability of its nuclear infrastructure and ongoing military modernization, particularly in submarine production and advanced technologies, remained central to its defense strategy.

Key Security Developments

• Joint Naval Drills in the Strait of Hormuz
  On February 17, 2026, China, Russia, and Iran launched the "Maritime Security Belt 2026" naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz. China's participation included assets from its Djibouti-based 48th Flotilla, such as the Type 052DL guided-missile destroyer Tangshan (D122), the Type 054A frigate Daqing (F576), and the Type 903A replenishment ship Taihu (K889). These exercises, described by Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev as "timely and strategically relevant," unfolded amidst a reinforced US naval presence, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike groups, intensifying strategic competition over this critical energy chokepoint.

• South China Sea Combat Readiness Patrols
  From Sunday to Monday, February 15-16, 2026, the Chinese military conducted naval and air combat readiness patrols in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Zhai Shichen, spokesman for the Chinese People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command, stated these patrols were in response to the Philippines "co-opting countries outside the region to organize the so-called joint patrols," which he claimed undermined regional peace and stability. This action underscores China's resolve to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights in the face of increasing external military presence.

• US-Australia-Philippines Trilateral Maritime Activity
  On February 15-16, 2026, the United States, Australia, and the Philippines completed a Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) inside the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone in the South China Sea. This drill highlighted Washington's treaty commitments to Manila and reflected growing trilateral efforts to deter coercion and reinforce a rules-based maritime order in the contested region. The activity signals a concerted effort by these nations to counter China's assertive actions in the South China Sea.

• Diplomatic Engagement with the United States
  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on February 14, 2026, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, where both sides agreed to strengthen dialogue and cooperation. This meeting aimed to promote the stable development of China-US relations, with both officials acknowledging the strategic guidance provided by Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The Trump administration also reportedly paused several major tech-security measures targeting China ahead of a planned April meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, suggesting a period of cautious de-escalation in certain areas.

• EU-China Relations: Cautious Engagement
  EU-China relations in 2026 entered a phase of "cautious engagement rather than reset," following a turbulent 2025 marked by trade frictions and disruptions in rare earth supplies. Diplomatic channels have reopened, and trade flows remain resilient, providing some stability. On February 21, 2026, EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič expressed the EU's aim to step up diplomatic engagement with China to address Beijing's vast trade surplus and other economic frictions, including export controls on critical materials.

• Escalating Cyber Threats from China-based Actors
  On February 19, 2026, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) warned of escalating cyber threats against the Philippines from China-based actors. These threats are linked to territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea and involve tactics such as malware deployment, Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, data leaks, and website compromises, aimed at advancing Beijing's regional ambitions. Separately, Germany accused China of being behind a 2021 cyberattack on its federal cartography agency for espionage purposes, leading to a diplomatic complaint on February 19, 2026.

• Concerns over Nuclear Site Vulnerability
  Following a hypothetical US military raid on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, China reacted with unease, with official state media voicing fears that its own underground nuclear sites are vulnerable to similar strikes. A US Air Force think tank report, published on February 19, 2026, indicated that China is modernizing its bunkers and tunnels for nuclear warhead and missile storage, as well as command and control facilities, to protect valuable assets and conceal military operations.

• Rapid Expansion of Nuclear Submarine Production
  Commercially available satellite imagery in early February 2026 revealed that China has significantly increased its nuclear-powered submarine production rate over the last five years (2021-2025), surpassing US launch numbers and tonnage. This includes the launch of a new, larger SSGN design at Huludao in February 2026, likely the first of a new class, in addition to Type-094 (Jin) nuclear-armed ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs). This expansion contributes to the emergence of Beijing's nuclear triad and presents a growing challenge to Western countries.

• Taiwan Arms Sales Dilemma for the US
  The United States is reportedly hesitating over fulfilling its next arms sales to Taiwan, valued at approximately $20 billion, due to concerns that it could derail US President Donald Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing. This hesitation follows a phone call on February 16, 2026, where CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping warned Trump against fulfilling the sales, threatening to upend the Beijing visit. The arms package is intended to support Taiwan's "T-dome" integrated air and missile defense network.

• Human Rights Repression Deepens
  A Human Rights Watch report, published on February 4, 2026, stated that the Chinese government intensified its repression across the country in 2025. The report highlighted strict ideological conformity and loyalty to President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party, with severe suppression of rights for Tibetans, Uyghurs, and members of unofficial churches. Repression in Hong Kong has also escalated, with the government summoning Western envoys on February 14, 2026, over criticism of Jimmy Lai's sentencing.

Geopolitical Impact and Regional Dynamics

China's recent security developments have significant geopolitical repercussions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East. The joint "Maritime Security Belt 2026" naval drills with Russia and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz on February 17, 2026, underscore a growing alignment among these nations, challenging the traditional US-led security architecture in the Gulf. This trilateral exercise signals a move towards a more multipolar maritime order and intensifies strategic competition over critical energy chokepoints. China's principled opposition to US military escalation against Iran, while providing technical and diplomatic support, reflects its strategy to achieve a "strategic balance" in the region and safeguard its economic interests without direct military involvement.

In the South China Sea, China's continued combat readiness patrols on February 17, 2026, in response to joint patrols by the Philippines and "countries outside the region," exacerbate regional tensions. The Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) conducted by the US, Australia, and the Philippines on February 15-16, 2026, within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone, demonstrates a strengthening of alliances aimed at deterring Chinese coercion and upholding a rules-based maritime order. This dynamic creates a heightened risk of incidents and underscores the ongoing strategic rivalry between China and the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. The Philippines, in particular, faces persistent cyberattacks from China-based actors linked to these territorial disputes, further complicating regional stability.

Relations with major powers like the US and the EU are characterized by a delicate balance. While high-level diplomatic engagements, such as the Wang Yi-Rubio meeting on February 14, 2026, aim to strengthen dialogue and cooperation, core tensions persist. The US hesitation on arms sales to Taiwan due to concerns about derailing a Trump-Xi meeting highlights the transactional nature of current US-China relations and Beijing's leverage on sensitive issues. With the EU, relations are in a phase of "cautious engagement," with efforts to address trade imbalances and critical material dependencies, but structural differences and economic security considerations remain. China's diplomatic messaging at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, 2026, emphasized its role as a reliable partner for peace and stability, contrasting with Western views on its actions in various regions.

Military and Defense Analysis

China's military and defense posture during this period reflects a sustained drive towards modernization and enhanced power projection capabilities. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) continues to prioritize joint force warfare and the development of next-generation strike power, as evidenced by its 2026 military training cycle launched in early January, which integrated air, naval, ground, and rocket forces. This includes the deployment of advanced platforms such as J-20 stealth fighter aircraft, Type 055 guided-missile destroyers, and DF-17 hypersonic missiles, signaling a focus on rapid deployment, joint integration, and command coordination.

A significant development is the rapid expansion of China's nuclear-powered submarine production. Satellite imagery from early February 2026 indicates that China has surpassed US launch numbers and tonnage in submarine production between 2021 and 2025. This includes the launch of a new, larger SSGN design at Huludao in February 2026, alongside Type-094 (Jin) nuclear-armed ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs). This quantitative increase, despite potential qualitative differences with US and European designs, presents a growing challenge to Western naval forces and significantly bolsters China's nuclear triad. Furthermore, China's concerns over the vulnerability of its underground nuclear sites to potential US bomber strikes, as highlighted on February 19, 2026, suggest an ongoing focus on developing advanced defenses and modernizing its subterranean infrastructure for strategic assets.

Defense spending trends are implicitly linked to the goals of China's 15th Five-Year Plan, which commenced in 2026. This plan emphasizes innovation-led and high-quality development, with military modernization, particularly in areas like quantum research and artificial intelligence, being a key component. China's participation in the World Defense Show (WDS 2026) in Riyadh from February 8-12, 2026, where it showcased defense systems, radar technology, thermal imaging, and night-vision cameras, also indicates its growing defense industry capabilities and its ambition to be a significant player in the global arms market.

Outlook and Forecast

Short-term trends (1-3 months): In the immediate future, China is likely to continue its assertive military posturing in contested regions, particularly the South China Sea and around Taiwan. The joint naval drills with Russia and Iran may become a more regular feature, solidifying a non-Western security bloc and challenging US influence in the Middle East. Diplomatic engagements with the US are expected to remain transactional, heavily influenced by the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in April, with potential for temporary de-escalation in certain tech-security areas. However, underlying tensions, especially regarding Taiwan and human rights, will persist. EU-China relations will likely focus on managing trade imbalances and critical raw material dependencies, with the EU seeking more structured dialogue. Cybersecurity threats from China-based actors are expected to intensify, particularly against nations involved in South China Sea disputes.

Critical flashpoints and risk areas: The South China Sea remains a primary flashpoint, with the increased frequency of Chinese patrols and trilateral exercises by the US, Australia, and the Philippines raising the risk of accidental escalation. The Taiwan Strait also remains a critical area, especially given the US hesitation on arms sales and China's continued military pressure and potential cognitive warfare tactics, such as signal spoofing. Any perceived shift in US policy towards Taiwan could provoke a strong reaction from Beijing. The Strait of Hormuz, with the ongoing trilateral drills and reinforced US presence, presents another potential area for miscalculation. Human rights issues, particularly in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet, will continue to be a source of diplomatic friction with Western nations.

Indicators to monitor: Key indicators to monitor include the outcomes and rhetoric surrounding the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting in April, which will signal the immediate trajectory of US-China relations. Developments in the South China Sea, including the frequency and nature of patrols and any new joint exercises, will be crucial. Progress, or lack thereof, in the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct negotiations for the South China Sea by the 2026 deadline will also be important. The status of US arms sales to Taiwan and any further Chinese military drills around the island should be closely watched. Furthermore, any new reports on China's defense spending, technological advancements in AI and quantum computing for military applications, and the rate of submarine production will provide insights into its long-term strategic ambitions.

Strategic recommendations: For nations interacting with China, a strategy of "deterrence by denial" in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with robust alliance building, remains essential to counter China's assertive actions. Maintaining clear communication channels with Beijing, even amidst disagreements, is crucial to prevent miscalculation and manage crises. Diversifying supply chains for critical materials and strengthening cybersecurity defenses are paramount to mitigate economic and digital vulnerabilities. Diplomatically, a united front on human rights issues, while engaging China on global challenges like climate change, could yield more effective outcomes. For Taiwan, continued investment in asymmetric defense capabilities and strengthening international partnerships are vital.

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